Pair #1036

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21830

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:00Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning one major does not logically require finishing top 10 in ALL 4 majors — Spieth could miss the cut or withdraw from others. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning any of them. No implication in either direction holds with certainty.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0021 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -7.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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