Pair #10359

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-BUF

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 432

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Buffalo Sabres before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-BUF

Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 21725

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Buffalo Sabres wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Buffalo does not imply Buffalo wins the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -17.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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