Pair #10358

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-BOS

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 313

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Boston Bruins before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-BOS

Will Boston Bruins win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6791

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Boston Bruins wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Boston does not imply Boston wins the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -6.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -11.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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