Pair #10357

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-ANA

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 674

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Anaheim Ducks before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-ANA

Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11029

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Anaheim Ducks wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:28Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining the Ducks doesn't guarantee the Ducks win the Stanley Cup, and the Ducks winning the Cup doesn't require Matthews being on the team.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -17.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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