Pair #10356

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 264814

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

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Rules

If Bud Cauley wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 742

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:28Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is winning one of the four majors, so it necessitates winning a major; but winning a major doesn't require it be The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -51.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0009 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -55.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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