Pair #10355

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BCAU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 742

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bud Cauley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BCAU

The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1285

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:28Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't require winning/placing top20 specifically at The Open Championship, since he could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -31.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0103 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -35.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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