Pair #10354

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-SVI

Will Elina Svitolina win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Elina Svitolina
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 517

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Elina Svitolina wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-SVI

Will Elina Svitolina win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Elina Svitolina
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2758

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Elina Svitolina wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:28Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the US Open is itself winning a Grand Slam major, but winning some Grand Slam in 2026 doesn't require it to be the US Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -28.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 59
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -32.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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