Pair #10351

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3445

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-PREE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26395

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:28Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after round 3 doesn't guarantee a final top10 finish, and finishing top10 doesn't require having led after round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue