Pair #10342

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11938

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0120

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3445

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; no logical necessity linking these events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -23.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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