Pair #10340

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11680

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3445

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 at the Scottish Open is unrelated to winning a major elsewhere.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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