Pair #10339

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11680

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-PREE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47605

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical link between winning a major and finishing top 20 at a different, non-major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -63.37% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -67.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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