Pair #10337

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11680

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-PREE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26395

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top-10 finish at a separate non-major tournament does not necessitate or is necessitated by winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -32.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0119 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -37.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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