Pair #10334

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 955753

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9890
Last: 0.0120

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Rules

If Patrick Reed wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11680

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessitates winning a major, but winning a major doesn't necessitate winning this specific major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -86.02% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0190 + ~$0.0028 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -90.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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