Pair #10332

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-CSMI

Cameron Smith to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1386467

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Competing in a LIV event in Q1 2027 and winning the 2026 Open Championship are independent events with no logical necessity between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 22.82% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8550 + ~$0.0093 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: +18.34% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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