Pair #10331

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1386467

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

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Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13381

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship, a major, necessarily satisfies the 'wins a major in 2026' condition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -57.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060 + ~$0.0010 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -61.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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