Pair #10330

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-CSMI

Cameron Smith to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 231

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1900

Rules

If Cameron Smith competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13381

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and competing in a LIV tournament in Q1 2027 are unrelated events with no logical necessity between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 21.76% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8600 + ~$0.0096 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: +17.28% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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