Pair #10329

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 615993

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

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Rules

If Marco Penge wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 900

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship, a major, necessarily satisfies the 'wins a major in 2026' condition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -69.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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