Pair #10328

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 500659

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0090

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Rules

If Ben Griffin wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3393

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship, a major, necessarily satisfies the 'wins a major in 2026' condition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -71.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0120 + ~$0.0019 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -75.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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