Pair #10327

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3393

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BGRI

The Open Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23966

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A top 20 finish at the Open doesn't guarantee winning a major, and winning a major (possibly a different one) doesn't guarantee a top 20 finish at the Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -40.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600 + ~$0.0145 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -45.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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