Pair #10326

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 651048

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0050

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Rules

If Jason Day wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2793

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily makes the 'wins a major in 2026' market resolve Yes. The reverse isn't true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -51.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0009 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -55.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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