Pair #10320

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 799

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1393

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:19Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major in 2026 and leading Round 3 at the Genesis Scottish Open; neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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