Pair #1032

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1751567

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1816

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship requires playing all rounds, which means Spieth must have made the cut. Making the cut does not guarantee winning. So winning implies making the cut, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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