Pair #10318

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 799

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-RHOJ

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1870

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:19Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 5 at the Genesis Scottish Open; neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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