Pair #10315

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 309802

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 799

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:19Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily satisfies the 'wins any major' condition. The reverse doesn't hold since the major win could be a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -55.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -59.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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