Pair #10313

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 78397

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-RMAC

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13609

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:14:19Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and a top 5 finish doesn't require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0289 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue