Pair #10303

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 60277

YES ask: 0.0240
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 78397

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:59Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2890 + ~$0.0164 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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