Pair #1030

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21438

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7621720

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship are events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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