Pair #10297

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 78397

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading Round 3 of the Scottish Open is unrelated to winning any of the four majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -44.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -48.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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