Pair #10296

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RMAC

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32655

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Scottish Open top-20 result does not necessitate or is necessitated by a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9300 + ~$0.0047 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -80.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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