Pair #10291

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1011366

YES ask: 0.0280
NO ask: 0.9740
Last: 0.0280

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Rules

If Robert MacIntyre wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors listed in Event A's rules, so winning it necessarily satisfies the major-win condition. The reverse does not hold since winning a different major wouldn't require winning The Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -50.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0038 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -55.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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