Pair #10290

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8968

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 60277

YES ask: 0.0240
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of The Open does not guarantee winning any major, and winning a major (possibly a different one) doesn't require leading Round 1 of The Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0030 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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