Pair #10285

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-ASCO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 702

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major and a top-10 finish at a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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