Pair #10283

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 681518

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

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Rules

If Adam Scott wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is winning a major, implying the major-win market resolves YES.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0140 + ~$0.0018 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -80.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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