Pair #10282

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2939

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading Round 1 of one major doesn't guarantee overall major win, and winning a major doesn't require leading R1 of that specific tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 0.16% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9980 + ~$0.0012 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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