Pair #10280

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2845

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-CCON

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Corey Conners finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 543

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Corey Conners finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major and a top-5 finish at a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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