Pair #10276

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1029722

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0170

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Rules

If Russell Henley wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17555

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is winning a major, so it implies the major-win market resolves YES.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0140 + ~$0.0031 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -91.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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