Pair #10275

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 864700

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

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Rules

If Sungjae Im wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2432

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it guarantees the major-win market resolves YES; the reverse doesn't hold since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0180 + ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -94.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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