Pair #10274

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2432

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2881

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:22Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading Round 1 of a specific major, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.05% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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