Pair #10273

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSTR

Will Sepp Straka win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 805284

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

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Rules

If Sepp Straka wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSTRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8013

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sepp Straka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:05Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors; winning it necessarily means winning a major, but winning a major doesn't imply winning this specific one.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -61.62% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0009 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -65.85% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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