Pair #10272

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RFOX

Will Ryan Fox lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 467

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Ryan Fox is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RFOX

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4321

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:05Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-20 finish, and a top-20 finish doesn't require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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