Pair #1027

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7621720

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is top 10, but Event B requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors — finishing top 10 in all 4 does not mean winning the Masters (could finish 2nd-10th). And winning the Masters alone doesn't guarantee top 10 in the other 3 majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -0.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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