Pair #10267

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RFOX

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 300

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RFOX

Will Ryan Fox lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 467

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:05Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 of a different, non-major tournament has no bearing on winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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