Pair #10266

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RFOX

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 300

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Ryan Fox wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RFOX

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4321

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:13:05Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top 20 finish at a non-major event has no logical connection to winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -41.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: 169
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -46.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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