Pair #10261

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6515

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major (possibly not The Open Championship) doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish there, and a top 5 finish there doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -22.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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