Pair #10260

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 612371

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9860
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6515

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it guarantees winning a major in 2026.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -53.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060 + ~$0.0023 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -57.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue