Pair #10259

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6515

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18545

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major (possibly a different one) does not require leading Round 1 of The Open Championship, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0017 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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