Pair #10258

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6515

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7008

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major could occur at a tournament other than The Open Championship, so it doesn't guarantee a top 20 finish there; likewise top 20 there doesn't imply a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -45.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -50.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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