Pair #10257

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7145

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-THAT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37528

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary logical connection between leading after Round 3 and a top 20 final finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0165 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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