Pair #1025

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11937

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21438

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:29Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar Championship necessarily means finishing top 10 as well (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue