Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?
Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7145
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-THOC26-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 827953
YES ask: 0.0220
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0220
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:24Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: No necessitating relationship between winning one tournament and leading another.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-57.17%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0220
+ ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity:
10
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-61.40%
BELOW HURDLE